郑丁贤：剃头政治

出处∶星洲日报
中文原题∶马荷加尼：剃头政治
英译题目∶An eye for an eye
作者　　∶郑丁贤
发表日期∶14-04-09
翻译　　∶DOMINIC LOH

变天（这里的读音是『夺权』）是传染病，跨州感染。

在霹雳州，国阵变民联的天；在登嘉楼，国阵变国阵的天。

登嘉楼更有趣。1年前，阿末赛益抢了依德里斯的州务大臣，1年后，依德里斯联合同僚，要夺回这个位子；公开出面的是他的亲信罗索华希。

你剃了別人的头，別人也在等机会，剃你的头。

登嘉楼州议会有32个席位，巫统佔23个，马华一个，回教党8个。

依德里斯这一边，已经掌握10个巫统议员，另外还有几人也已暗通款曲；他们不会做没有把握的事。

阿末赛益在登嘉楼巫统原本就不是主流，无法统御州巫统；即使做了一年的州务大臣，还是弱势。

但是，他也不是纸糊的，一推就倒。

他是苏丹钦点的州务大臣。正因为苏丹坚持，他才能逼退依德里斯，坐上大臣位子。

这是阿末赛益的护身符。

几天前，就已经传出阿末赛益的地位岌岌可危，当时，他还老神在在说，任何变动，还要问苏丹才行。

双方公开扯破脸之后，苏丹的態度很关键。

如果苏丹不介入，依德里斯就有机会成功夺权。

若是苏丹力挺阿末赛益，依德里斯的目的就很难得逞。

巫统中央的立场其实很矛盾；州巫统是党阀政治，党中央只能斡旋，而不能控制。党中央一方面不愿得罪地方势力，另一方面，也不能和苏丹唱反调。

巫统在霹雳指尼查不接受苏丹决定，是『叛君』行为；在登嘉楼，它怎能用同一块石头来砸自己的脚。

况且，巫统正在拉拢王室力量，它又怎能和王室对抗。

州巫统决裂，回教党就待价而沽。一旦在议会提呈不信任动议，还得看回教党议员的態度。

组织联合政府，是另一个选项。

到了最后关头，阿末赛益还有保命绝招，就是寻求苏丹同意，解散州议会。

一旦这么做，就是剃巫统的头了。

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"Change of government" (read "seizing of power") is an infectious disease that spreads from state to state.

In Perak, Barisan Nasional seized the power from Pakatan Rakyat; and in Terengganu, it is BN seizing the power from BN.

The case in Terengganu is of particular interest.

A year ago, Ahamd Said seized the menteri besar post from Idris, and one year later, Idris wants to take back his seat with the help from a few comrades. And his close ally Rosol Wahid has nothing to hide of his intention.

You shaved other people's head, and other people are awaiting the opportunity to serve you the same.

There are 32 state assembly seats in Terengganu. UMNO has secured 23, MCA 1 and PAS 8.

Idris already has ten UMNO assemblymen on his side, and a few others are keen to cross over.

They are not going to do anything they are not confident of.

Ahmad Said has never been in the state political mainstream, and has problem steering the state UMNO. Even after a year in office as MB, he is still seen by many as weak.

Nevertheless, he is also not too vulnerable, ready to be toppled anytime.

He is the menteri besar anointed by the Sultan. He has been able to grab the menteri besar seat merely because of the Sultan's insistence.

And that is his talisman.

Several days ago, it was rumoured that Ahmad Said's status was precarious, but he said confidently any change to the status quo would need the Sultan's consent.

When the two sides are locked in a tough fight, the Sultan's attitude will become critical.

If the Sultan stays out of this business, Idris will have his day.

But if the Sultan lends his full support to Ahmad Said, then Idris will have a hard time pursuing his intent.

The UMNO central leadership's stand is contradictory. The party central could only mediate, not dominate.

While the party central is unwilling to offend the local forces, it is also not going to do anything against the Sultan's will.

If UMNO has branded Nizar Jamaluddin a traitor for openly defying the Sultan's orders, how could it smash its own leg with the same rock in Terengganu?

Moreover, UMNO is still trying to enlist the support of the royalty, and is therefore most unlikely to confront the royalty.

When the state UMNO is torn apart, PAS is closely evaluating the situation. Once the no-confidence motion is tabled in the state assembly, all eyes will now fall on PAS assemblymen's attitude.

Forming a coalition government could be another option.

In the end, Ahmad Said still has his last straw: to get the Sultan's consent to dissolve the state assembly.